It looks at spending on services and goods by central government over recent decades, particularly since 1997 as consistent datasets are available for this whole period. Other than the exceptional Covid year of 2020-21, it identifies the early 2000s as the only period in which there was particularly strong growth in spending on services and goods. It shows that this was mostly affordable because of rising tax bases and shrinking bills for other expenditure. The contribution from rising tax rates was at most a small part of the mix and there wasn’t any net borrowing in real terms over the period 1997-98 to 2005-06.
It is argued that putting in place conditions conducive to growing tax bases is the key to implementing manifesto spending pledges. This runs directly counter to a prevailing narrative that putting up burdensome taxes on citizens who are already struggling is the only way to fund improvements in public services.
Representation to Spending Review and Autumn Budget 2021
I’ve just realised that I never uploaded TRL Insight’s submission to the Spending Review and Autumn Budget 2021. I’m now rectifying that.
I also devoted time to my interest in theoretical physics.
Having now left Pragmatix Advisory, I am now exploring options for making TRL Insight more proactive, focused on the projects I am most keen to do, and balanced within a wider portfolio career.
Inclusive economies and healthy futures—case studies for Local Government Association (LGA)
TRL Insight was commissioned by the LGA to develop a set of case studies on the relationship between health and economic prosperity. TRL Insight worked up six of these, together with a substantial introduction. These were published with a short foreword in December 2021.
These case studies demonstrate how English councils understand that helping people into employment and to progress in their careers goes hand-in-hand with supporting healthy, enjoyable lives. By highlighting innovative policies and interventions, they provide inspiration for other areas.
The introduction has the form of a wide-ranging briefing on the subject, containing further examples of good practice.
Fragmented Funding – report for Local Government Association (LGA)
TRL Insight was commissioned by the LGA to look into the fragmentary nature of central funding to local government. The final report, published in 2020, identifies over 400 grants issued over a four-year period. It presents new analysis based on a wide range of publicly available governmental data; it also draws on interviews with twelve senior council officers working across four key service areas. It highlights:
how many of these grants are very small in total value;
how many of them required councils to submit bids;
how short-term many of them are;
how many government departments and agencies the grants are channelled through;
how much of the total funding is for services over which councils have very little control;
the resulting impacts on the four service areas (adult social care, homelessness, children and families, and public health).
