LinkedIn articles June-November 2024

During the second half of 2024, I published four articles on LinkedIn. These can be read by clicking on the titles below.

Why putting money into fixing the NHS is wrong (28 June)

This points out that the biggest problems facing the NHS cannot be fixed by putting money into it. Rather, they can only be solved by investing further upstream: in public health and in social care – crucially, including respite care.

Why increasing tax bases is the key to fulfilling manifesto pledges (1 July)

This article accompanies the report Tax Receipts and Government Spending – see below. It challenges the narrative which dominated the media at that time, and has held sway ever since, particularly pushed by the IFS, that the only way to pay for increased public spending is through increasing tax rates. It points out that the Government can take many actions which will stimulate the growth in tax bases. In the absence of external shocks to the economy, these could provide far higher increases in tax receipts than tinkering with rates. On the other hand, should such shocks occur, the public services will be in a far better shape to weather them.

How to “recognise the benefits of investment” and unlock local growth (30 September)

This was written in response to reports that the Treasury was intending to change the primary measure of public sector debt. Much of it was based on TRL Insight’s 2018 report Building Freedom. In this article, I argue that the Government should avoid making a simple technocratic change to this measure, as discussed by the IFS and in the media at the time. Instead, the Government should look at fiscal reporting in the round and implement more comprehensive reforms based on its vision for the future of the UK. These should reflect: the need for greater investment in early intervention and preventing future costs; the growing financial autonomy of local government.

Helping people to realise the benefits of work (26 November)

This was published to coincide with the Get Britain Working white paper and it tackled the discussion of “carrots” and “sticks” for getting people off benefits and into work. The Budget had announced that the white paper would include “trailblazers” to bring together services to support people with health issues into work. The article drew on TRL Insight’s case studies for the LGA to show how local authorities were already doing this. It explained the barriers to work facing people with poor health and how these programmes tackled these barriers. It also argued that the “sticks” of benefit sanctions and browbeating by the Government were counter-productive – these could cause stress and exacerbate people’s health problems.